On Wednesday evening, 6 November 2024—just hours after the conclusion of the U.S. elections, in which Republican candidate Donald Trump secured a new presidential term—the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies held its monthly Ibn Rushd Salon under the title: ‘What Should We Expect from the New U.S. President on Issues Concerning the Arab World?’
The discussion featured Amy Hawthorne, former Deputy Director for Research at the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED); Seth Binder, Advocacy Director at POMED and a specialist in U.S. foreign policy and Middle East affairs; Anthony Dworkin, Visiting Lecturer at Sciences Po and Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; and Dr. Marina Ottaway, Middle East Fellow at the Wilson Center and former Director of the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The discussion was moderated by Tunisian human rights advocate Messaoud al-Romdhani.
Amy Hawthorne opened the discussion by emphasizing Trump’s unpredictability. Nevertheless, she anticipates that his return to office will lead to even greater support for Israel, which will intensify the suffering of Palestinians with potential implications for Lebanon as well. Unlike Biden, Hawthorne argued, Trump will not place democracy or Gaza at the center of his policies. Instead, he is likely to pursue a more aggressive agenda in the Middle East, with fewer constraints on human rights violations. She added that the new U.S. administration is expected to shift its strategic from the region to focus more heavily toward China.
In this context, Marina Ottaway remarked that she does not expect a significant difference between Trump and Biden towards Palestine. While Biden’s rhetoric was less extreme, he ‘ultimately allowed Netanyahu to do whatever he wanted’. Ottaway stressed that Biden merely called for a ceasefire without exerting sufficient pressure to actually enforce one.
While Anthony Dworkin concurred that Biden’s policies were ineffective, he predicted that Trump would clearly signal to Israelthat there are no limits to what it can do—whether in Palestine or Lebanon. He added that Trump may attempt to pressure Saudi Arabia into normalizing relations with Israel, noting, ‘It is unclear whether Saudi Arabia would agree to such a deal without a viable path toward a lasting and sustainable settlement in Gaza, and a political process that ultimately leads to a Palestinian state’. In contrast, Seth Binder expressed doubt that Trump would succeed in shifting Saudi or other Gulf states’ positions toward Israel—unless there is a clear change in his stance on the two-state solution.
Binder further predicted that Trump may adopt a more aggressive approach by giving Israel the green light to target Iran’s nuclear program, despite his stated intention to strike a deal with Iran. In contrast, Anthony Dworkin questioned whether Trump would want the U.S. to engage in a full-scale war with Iran.
Regarding the allegations surrounding a proposal for Gaza to be governed by an international authority led by the United States, with Gulf countries financing the reconstruction process, Hawthorne emphasized how unlikely such a plan is to succeed. Seth Binder agreed, commenting, ‘That would require a great deal of incentives’.
On the future of democracy in the region after Trump, Ottaway commented that the Arab Spring clearly demonstrated the difficulty of overthrowing authoritarian regimes. Meanwhile, Dworkin argued that Trump does not prioritize human rights and democracy in his foreign policy, while the European Union focuses on its own priorities in the region, which include migration, economic development, and security. He added, ‘The matter is now left to individuals and social movements within the countries of the region to try to form alliances capable of gathering sufficient internal support’.
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