On Tuesday, 3 September 2024, the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies (CIHRS) held a seminar as part of the monthly activities of Salon Ibn Rushd, titled ‘Why are elections in Arab countries neglected by Arabs and the world?’ The seminar hosted Iraqi researcher and writer Haider Saeed and Tunisian journalist and political analyst Slaheddine Jourchi, and was moderated by human rights activist Messaoud Romdhani.
The speakers began the discussion by addressing reasons for Arab citizens’ reluctance to participate in elections in their country; does it indicate a decline in citizens’ interest in political and public affairs, or are there deeper implications? Haidar Saeed warned of the danger of reducing the concept of popular participation in public affairs to participation in elections only. This is what authoritarian regimes strive to establish, Saeed underscored, by ‘packaging’ the concept of political participation in only one form, that of voter queues, while prohibiting citizens from real and effective participation in civil society. Such prohibitions include the confiscation of partisan and union political engagement, and the deliberate exclusion of parties and youth movements, even though these are all manifestations of popular participation in politics and public affairs. Acts such as voter boycott of elections do not necessarily indicate an aversion to or decline in interest in public affairs, but rather an awareness that all sources and forms of political life have been limited to the voting process only. Since authoritarian regimes have become professional at ‘manufacturing elections,’ voting only leads to the consolidation and legitimization of these regimes and the renewal of their mandate.
According to Saeed, the ‘election industry’ does not necessarily entail fraud, deception, or bribery, but moreover encompasses the detailing of laws, the distribution of seats, the division of constituencies, the selection and exclusion of competitors, and the confiscation of freedoms; all of which undermine voters’ faith in the electoral process as a mechanism for change. In in the first elections after the revolution in most Arab Spring countries, Saeed recalled, voters flocked to polling stations in large numbers, while in subsequent elections, their numbers declined significantly. This reluctance is linked to voters’ expectations of the electoral process, or their rejection of voting as the only form of permissible political participation under the ruling authority and its parties. As such, voting does not result in any radical changes in the interests of the voter, and does not indicate the potential for any reform in the future.
Slaheddine Jourchi expressed reservations about boycotting elections, considering it as neither ‘a means of isolating’ an authoritarian regime nor preventing a prolongation of its rule. Before embarking on any electoral process, Jourchi stressed that it is of utmost importance to prepare the political, social and cultural context that safeguards the democratic nature of elections. He addressed the situation in Tunisia, and how the absence of social and cultural awareness and a deep understanding of politics and the meaning of democracy has sometimes pushed voters to make harmful choices, questioning the usefulness of elections in and of themselves. Despite this, the voters’ keenness to participate in the electoral process remains a positive indicator of their adherence to the hope of peaceful change, and a practice that allows them to learn through experience and expertise. Jourchi said, ‘Politics almost died in Tunisia and there has become a noticeable reluctance to simply follow political affairs. The elections were an opportunity to stir this stagnant water, even a little, before Kais Saied’s decision to form the electoral commission, which aborted this hope’. According to Jourchi, there is hope for Tunisian participation in elections only if there is an independent candidate competing with Kais Saied, around whom the people and the opposition rally, and who may disrupt the status quo and renew hope for change. If the opposition candidate decides to withdraw due to the futility of competing, this will severely curtail any ability negotiate or pressure the ruling regime in a way that allows for even a slight margin of change.
Saeed focused on the disparity between Arab countries, considering that in some countries, the ruling regime did not allow competition at all, as was witnessed with potential candidate Ahmed Tantawi in Egypt’s last presidential elections. The Egyptian regime has succeeded in almost completely closing the public sphere and eliminating all forms of political participation, even just the expression of opinion. Egypt has tightened its control over the electoral process – the only form of political participation the regime allows – emptying elections of their value. The situations in Iraq and Tunisia, however, may allow for some resistance, negotiation, and pressure. All authoritarian regimes are forced to hold elections periodically and regularly, for legitimacy, Saeed noted while underscoring that: ’There is no democracy without elections, but not all elections are evidence of democracy’.
Regarding forms of pressure and resistance, Jourchi addressed the concept of legal and legislative resistance, considering these to be an indication of ongoing attempts to confront tyranny, even by simply challenging the president’s decisions and searching for loopholes in the law and constitution that challenge executive efforts to monopolize all powers. Despite all the repression, the reality of a change in Tunisia cannot be denied, as there is a decline in Kais Saied’s popularity today compared to the time he was chosen. According to Jourchi, this indicates that the voices of the opposition are still finding their way to voters. There is a shift in the political awareness of the elites looming on the horizon, Jourchi believes, as the crisis today is no longer the Ennahda Party but rather the increasingly urgent economic, political and social crises. An awareness has begun to form of the fact that there is no way to achieve economic reform and improve living conditions as long as the margin of freedoms shrinks, and one person monopolizes decision-making while rejecting criticism or consultation. Thus the issue of civil and political rights and freedoms has returned to the list of priorities of opposition parties and forces. Jourchi said that this does not only apply to Tunisia, but also to other Arab countries.
Thus the seminar posed the question: If the opposition were to have an effective role in pressure, negotiation and resistance, then what would prevent the opposition, in most Arab countries, from rallying around one candidate to confront the incumbent candidate? According to Saeed, there are combined factors that must coincide for such rallying to be possible. It must be recognized that there is a new generation of political dissidents with their own concepts, language and tools; the major political parties in their traditional forms and ideologies have come to an end. The electoral movements and parties that have emerged are united only by elections but separated by political practices, while the forms of practicing politics have changed. There are opportunities for resistance available in each country, Saeed noted, whether that resistance is channeled through legislation, demonstrations and protests, opinion and media platforms, parties and elections, or through civil society.
Each national government in the Arab region attempts to control resistance in different ways, Saeed explained. The ruling regime may control civil society through repressive laws, or through imbuing the executive authority into its actions and decisions, or through efforts to subordinate civil society to the government through ostensible ‘partnership’ efforts. Saeed also focused on issues including the economic situation and the regime’s ability to meet the minimum needs of citizens and, in return, the opposition’s ability to offer safe economic alternatives. Other significant issues include the extent of Western pressure against or in support of the ruling regime, the degree of military support for the ruling regime, regional conditions and balances between regional actors, and international factors and their repercussions. Saeed concluded the seminar by offering a message of hope: ‘No one can assert that the page of the Arab Spring has been turned. Yet despite the faltering of its first and second waves, it may be renewed the day the opposition succeeds in linking economic and social demands, in a balanced manner, to its plan for reform and democratic transition’.
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